Bitcoin Extends Slide — Can ‘Uptober’ 2026 Beat Last Year’s?
Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin Extends Slide — Can ‘Uptober’ 2026 Beat Last Year’s? Bitcoin is off to a rough start so far this month. But things could still turn around. This post Bitcoin Extends Slide —...
Bitcoin is off to a rough start so far this month. But things could still turn around.
Bitcoin’s price dipped further on Monday, sliding 2% over a 24-hour period to trade at a little over $82,423.
The coin over the past week has dropped by 3%, and so far this month, it’s trading down.
October is usually a strong month for the OG cryptocurrency. Data from Coinglass shows that it has finished eight of the last 10 Octobers in the green.
Last year was one of the exceptions: while bitcoin’s price notched an all-time high of $126,080, it then started to enter a bear market after October 10 — when the biggest crypto liquidation event in history battered the asset’s price.
Markets across the board got hit hard following tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Crypto long positions got wiped out and over $19 billion in digital asset bets were liquidated.
The good news? That the coin just had its best quarter in years and a good September — historically a rough month for the cryptocurrency. Analysts now are saying that while it’s got off to a bad start so far in “Uptober”, signs of a bottom this month may already be in.
Writing for data firm CryptoQuant, Japanese asset management platform XWIN said it could be up from here.
“Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging,” XWIN said in a note. “On October 12, markets priced roughly an 18% chance of an October Fed hike, while Brent crude had eased from nearly $110 to around $103.”
It added: “‘Uptober’ need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance.”
High oil prices have — at least in the short-term — hurt bitcoin’s price as investors then expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in order to control inflation.
But while the U.S. central bank last month raised interest rates, bitcoin’s price was unfazed and rose following the news.
Other analysts have now said the biggest cryptocurrency is out of a bear market due to it crossing its 365-day moving average — a signal that has marked the start of its bull markets in past cycles.
Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Bitcoin's October weakness arrives amid a crowded narrative: 'Uptober' seasonality has become reflexive market folklore, yet 2025's strong October performance (52% gain) set an exceptionally high bar for 2026. The fact that BTC is underperforming early-month expectations signals either a genuine shift in macro conditions or a deliberate test of whether seasonal patterns retain predictive power after becoming widely known.
The comparison to 2025 is instructive for what it reveals about market maturity. Seasonal trading edges typically compress as capital exploits them; October's historical bullishness partly reflected pre-halving positioning dynamics that no longer apply uniformly. Current weakness may reflect profit-taking from summer positions, anticipation of Q4 regulatory clarity, or normalization away from overstretched valuations—none of which have seasonality as their root cause.
For institutional and macro participants, the real signal isn't whether BTC beats 2025's returns but whether mid-October weakness continues into a sustained correction or reverses. October volatility cycles often precede November consolidation patterns; failure to stabilize here could telegraph genuine demand destruction versus technical flushing.