Bitcoin investor sentiment cools amid US shutdown fears, Fed policy jitters
Bitcoin’s push for $93,000 was stalled as professional traders stay cautious and the market’s focus remains pinned to gold’s rally, Federal Reserve policy and US macroeconomics.
Bitcoin market data shows that pro traders are avoiding risk and paying extra to protect against a price drop.
Gold is hitting record highs, but Bitcoin remains stuck as investors favor traditional safe havens.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.5% following a retest of the $86,000 level on Sunday as traders weigh the risks of a US federal government shutdown by Saturday. This week features multiple high-stakes catalysts, including earnings reports from global tech giants and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Despite gold hitting record highs, Bitcoin traders remain cautious. Derivatives metrics suggest skepticism regarding further gains; demand for leveraged bullish positions is weak, and professional traders are currently pricing in higher odds of a negative price swing in the options markets.
The annualized BTC futures premium (basis rate) stood at 5% on Monday. This level is barely enough to compensate for the longer settlement periods inherent in these derivative contracts. Typically, when traders turn bullish, this indicator jumps above 10%. Conversely, bearish periods can cause the rate to turn negative. Overall, market sentiment has remained neutral-to-bearish for the past two weeks.
Similarly, the BTC options delta skew reached 12% on Monday. This indicates that put (sell) options are trading at a premium, reflecting a strong reluctance among traders to hold downside exposure. In a neutral market, this indicator usually fluctuates between -6% and +6%. The last time the skew reached these levels was Dec. 1, when Bitcoin plummeted from $91,500 to $83,900 in just a few hours.
Attributing Bitcoin’s bearish momentum solely to the US fiscal standoff seems counterintuitive, especially as the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% on Monday. Meanwhile, gold surged to $5,100 for the first time in history. This rally has led analysts to wonder if a "debasement trade" is accelerating. While the US dollar losing value against scarce assets is a common theme, it currently reflects a broader lack of trust that is not necessarily translating into immediate gains for Bitcoin.
Investors have become increasingly risk-aware after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York signaled a potential rescue of the Japanese yen—a move not seen since 1998. Over the past year, other major fiat currencies have outperformed the US dollar, making US imports more expensive and exerting upward pressure on inflation. If the Fed proceeds with an intervention, traders may interpret the move as a desperate measure to stabilize global markets.
The US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) dropped below 97 for the first time in four months on Monday as traders sought protection in rival fiat currencies.
Interestingly, even with 5-year US Treasury yields surpassing those of Europe and Japan at 3.8%, investors are still bracing for higher US inflation. It is becoming increasingly evident that the US will adopt a softer monetary policy, particularly as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mandate ends in April.
US President Donald Trump has made it clear that Powell’s successor must focus on trimming Fed funds rates. Such a move would provide more breathing room for the US Treasury by reducing interest expenses. While a more expansionary monetary policy typically supports the stock market, it does not always create an immediate or direct incentive for Bitcoin investment.
If corporate earnings from major tech companies surprise to the upside this week, there may be even less incentive for investors to rotate into alternative scarce assets. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s path to reclaiming the $93,000 level hinges on professional traders regaining their confidence. This recovery might take longer than expected as macroeconomic shifts and the corporate earnings season dominate the spotlight this week.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Bitcoin's stalled momentum reflects a structural shift in how macro uncertainty is being priced. The futures basis rate of 5% and put skew at 12% reveal professional traders are explicitly hedging downside risk—a posture typical of Dec. 1 before the $91.5k-to-$83.9k washout. The puzzle here is asymmetry: gold rallying to record highs while Bitcoin flatlines suggests the 'debasement trade' narrative isn't automatically bullish for crypto. This matters because it decouples the traditional inflation hedge thesis from crypto adoption, indicating Bitcoin's correlation with macro is conditional on sentiment rather than monetary mechanics alone.
The immediate catalyst layer—US shutdown fears, Fed policy, earnings season—is secondary to the deeper signal: institutional players are treating this environment as systemically fragile. The Fed's potential yen intervention (first since 1998) and currency weakness across major economies is being read as desperation, not opportunity. A softer Fed under Powell's successor would typically support risk assets, yet traders aren't repositioning aggressively. This suggests either (1) near-term earnings disappointment is being priced in, or (2) confidence in the Fed's ability to engineer a soft landing is eroding. For Bitcoin, this means the narrative has shifted from 'monetary easing will help crypto' to 'macro turbulence makes everything risky.'
Bitcoin's recovery to $93k now depends on a confidence reboot from professionals—unlikely until either earnings surprise positively, geopolitical tensions ease, or Fed guidance definitively signals rate cuts. Gold's ascent establishes a ceiling on risk appetite; as long as capital flows toward traditional safe havens, Bitcoin's value proposition as an inflation hedge remains theoretical rather than demonstrated.