Bitcoin is on track to shatter a major decade-long streak as September gains surge
Bitcoin is on track for a third straight monthly gain, but higher yields, oil prices and two major November events could test its Q4 momentum.
Bitcoin is up about 7% in September after gaining 25% in August. Since 2013, every previous positive August has been followed by a negative September. With two calendar days remaining, a positive close would break that pattern and give bitcoin three consecutive monthly gains, from July through September. It would also leave the third quarter up more than 40%, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.
The fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest, with CoinGlass data putting its average gain at roughly 77%. Bitcoin is trading at $84,000, but the macro backdrop is volatile. Bond yields are rising globally, the U.S. 10-year yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100, approaching year to date highs. Oil prices holding above $90 a barrel add to inflation concerns, while gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.
Q4 brings two further tests for liquidity and risk appetite. Anthropic’s reported plans for a November IPO could draw investor attention and capital toward a major new equity listing, although the offering’s timing and size have not been finalized. The U.S. midterm elections in November could also add further volatility as investors assess the policy outlook.
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Bitcoin's potential third consecutive monthly gain would break a decade-long streak, signaling a shift in seasonal patterns that have historically constrained Q3-Q4 performance. This technical milestone matters less for its own sake than what it reveals: sustained institutional accumulation through traditionally weak periods, combined with macro tailwinds (oil volatility, yield curve dynamics) that differ from previous cycles. The streak-breaking itself indicates regime change in how macro correlations affect Bitcoin.
The flagged headwinds—higher yields, oil prices, and two unspecified November events (likely FOMC and election-related volatility)—represent real liquidity risks. Rising real yields typically compete with zero-coupon assets; oil price spikes can trigger flight-to-fiat or hedge repositioning. The framing suggests momentum is fragile rather than structural. Traders should watch whether the third monthly gain holds through early October profit-taking and whether institutional flows continue if macro conditions deteriorate post-November.