Bitcoin, Nasdaq futures decline as Trump won’t rule out more Iran strikes
Trump on Sunday didn’t rule out additional strikes on Iran before the midterm elections, even as he said the war could end soon.
Bitcoin BTC$83,367.84 and Nasdaq have begun the new week on a soft note as President Donald Trump signaled possible new military strikes on Iran before the early November midterm elections.
At 03:30 UTC, bitcoin was down 1.3% at $83,324, with major alternative cryptocurrencies such as ether ETH$2,652.72, XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) nursing similar losses. Futures tied to Wall Street's tech-heavy Nasdaq index traded 0.7% lower.
Futures linked to WTI crude oil rose nearly 1% to $93.28, alongside similar gains in Brent.
Trump said Sunday he expected the war with Iran to end “very soon”, but did not rule out more military strikes on the country before the midterm elections.
“I don't want to say that. I don't want to say that. I mean, it's possible, but I just don't want to say that,” he said when asked whether military action could resume, according to Fox News.
He added that the U.S. will win the war via both military and economic pressure.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, said that his nation is “fully prepared” for a renewed conflict, warning it could stand even a potential "doomsday war."
At the United Nations General Assembly, Iran proposed an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint disrupted by the war, for a seven-day period and pause fighting, followed by broader negotiations on issues.
Trump, however, rejected the proposal, saying that Iran is looking for a deal because it was under heavy pressure. Trump also stressed on Truth Social that Iran "cannot have a nuclear weapon."
This lingering geopolitical uncertainty has stoked inflation fears since the war began in early March, lifting Treasury yields. The 10-year yield has risen by 127 basis points to 5.20%, the highest since 2007, amid inflation fears, Fed rate-hike bets and debt concerns.
Bitcoin fell early this year, but has bounced back strongly in the third quarter, shrugging off these uncertainties. Prices are up 42% in three months, outperforming every major asset, including Nasdaq and gold.
Analysts are now watching incoming data for cues about the next move in the cryptocurrency.
"For investors, the 83,800-84,000 zone is an important near-term support. The 85,000-85,800 area is the immediate resistance zone. It would be prudent to avoid chasing the rally at current levels,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, said in an email.
He added that keeping leverage limited and using staggered entries can help manage volatility while the market responds to ETF flows, Treasury yields and incoming U.S. inflation data.
The U.S. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing, and nonfarm payrolls are due this week and could influence Fed rate-hike bets and the broader market.
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Geopolitical risk events—particularly unresolved tensions in the Middle East—historically trigger flight-to-safety behavior that pressures risk assets. Bitcoin and equities moving in tandem on Iran strike signals suggests macro positioning is treating crypto as risk-on rather than a distinct asset class. The ambiguity around potential escalation creates tail-risk hedging demand favoring bonds and the dollar, which compete with speculative positions.
The timing near midterm elections adds political uncertainty to an already volatile geopolitical calculus. Markets are pricing optionality cost: the probability mass on additional strikes increases hedging ratios across leverage-sensitive instruments. For crypto, this typically manifests as liquidation cascades if long positioning is crowded. The signal matters less for fundamentals and more for near-term liquidity conditions and leverage cycles, which remain structural vulnerabilities in DeFi.