Bitcoin price analysis sees ‘strong rally’ as old coins become dormant
A decline in the share of Bitcoin’s realized cap held by coins unmoved for 18 months or longer points to the ‘early stages’ of a bull market, analysis says.
Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
The metric tracks 'old coin dormancy'—Bitcoin held by addresses inactive for 18+ months—as a proxy for long-term holder behavior during market cycles. A declining share of the realized cap held by these dormant coins suggests old hodlers are either selling into strength or that newer, more active capital is diluting their proportional holdings. Historically, this pattern emerges in early bull phases when price appreciation reactivates older wallets and attracts fresh buyers.
This signal matters because it differs from traditional volume or price metrics. It measures conviction through time horizons: if truly old capital is moving, it indicates either capitulation (bearish) or profit-taking at new highs (cycle progression). The framing as 'early stages' depends on interpreting dormancy decline as supply-side rotation rather than exhaustion. Context is critical—this alone doesn't confirm a bull run, but complements on-chain patterns like MVRV ratio, exchange inflows, and realized price pressure.