Bitcoin Price Prediction: Testing $76,000 as Treasury Yield Hits 4.93%
Today’s Bitcoin price prediction is driven by Brent crude, which moved above $110 a barrel amid surging U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.93%, while Bitcoin fell below $77,000 and reached a daily low of $76,600. The move placed the closely watched $76,000 support level in focus.
Oil above $100 has sharpened inflation concerns across markets. Yet the immediate transmission channel described by the available market evidence runs through the bond market. Higher Treasury yields affect borrowing costs and financial conditions, while the macro energy shock has added pressure to Bitcoin as traders reassess inflation and monetary-policy risks.
Brent has surged nearly +83% since the start of the year, jumping from $60.70 on January 1 to $111 today.
The surge comes as Yemen's Houthis reportedly hit Saudi… pic.twitter.com/SrsrxrL5ap
The central tension is that oil supplies the inflation shock, while yields provide a direct measure of how that shock is being absorbed across financial markets. With inflation data lagging the latest rise in energy prices, market participants are making forward-looking valuations before official data can fully reflect the move in crude.
On September 10, higher oil prices and Treasury-market volatility coincided with a broad deterioration in market sentiment. Brent crude moved past $100 and then above $105, extending gains of more than 30% since early August. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by more than 4% and returned above $100 a barrel for the first time since May.
The primary evidence attributes the Brent move to concerns about supply disruptions caused by intensified attacks on Middle Eastern shipping routes. As oil prices rose, Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 defense line and reached its daily low of $76,676.07, dragging its price prediction down. Nasdaq 100 futures also fell 0.7%, indicating that the pressure extended beyond crypto markets.
The bond market was similarly volatile. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.93%, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.35%, a 19-year high. The two-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.50%. Markets also priced a 76% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike the following week, following an accelerated rise in the Producer Price Index alongside the crude-oil rally.
A key complication is the lag in inflation data. Most of the August inflation data was collected before crude prices rose further. That means current readings may not fully capture the energy-price pressure that market participants are already attempting to value.
In this setting, the market is reacting not only to published data but also to the possibility that later data will show more of the oil shock.
Treasury yields matter because Treasuries are a benchmark risk-free asset for global finance. Reuters explains that they anchor the pricing of mortgages, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, private credit, and stock valuations. When yields rise, borrowing costs can rise, and financial conditions can tighten across markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield is also an important guide for mortgage rates, while companies generally borrow at a Treasury yield plus a credit spread. A sustained rise in U.S. yields can draw capital toward dollar assets and tighten financial conditions abroad.
The US Treasury just announced it is tripling long-term buybacks to $6 billion and yields STILL rallied on the news.
That means the US Treasury went from doubling, to "at least doubling," to tripling long-term bond buybacks and yields are still rising.… pic.twitter.com/WWWtwBpzVw
Those mechanics help explain why a Treasury-market repricing can spread beyond government debt and into equities, credit, and crypto assets.
For Bitcoin, the available evidence identifies a macro spillover rather than an isolated crypto-market event. Woofun AI said severe volatility in the macro energy market was transmitting inflation expectations to the crypto sector and placing downward pressure on Bitcoin as it tested the $76,000 level. It characterized the cross-asset move as an urgent repricing of potential stagflation risks.
The two-year Treasury yield, at approximately 4.50%, stood nearly a percentage point above the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s current 3.50% to 3.75% target range. This move reflected traders’ expectations of further monetary tightening.
At the longer end, the approach of the 10-year yield toward 5% has heightened attention on whether the bond market will demand still higher compensation to hold government debt.
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Bitcoin's test of $76,000 reflects a macro repricing rather than crypto-specific weakness. The driver is Treasury yield expansion to 4.93%—itself triggered by oil above $110 and forward-looking inflation expectations. This matters because Treasuries anchor all asset pricing: mortgages, corporate debt, equities, and crypto valuations compress when risk-free rates rise. The $76k level is a real technical floor, but the underlying issue is whether markets are now pricing stagflation (growth shock + persistent inflation), which would pressure risk assets across the board.
The lag between energy prices and official inflation data creates outsized volatility. Crude has rallied 83% YTD, but August CPI was collected before the recent spike—so markets are frontrunning data they expect to worsen. This forward-pricing dynamic explains cross-asset stress: Nasdaq 100 futures fell alongside Bitcoin, and two-year yields sit 75bps above the Fed's current ceiling, implying market expectations for additional tightening. If energy prices stabilize and inflation data disappoints expectations, the repricing could reverse. If not, sustained 5% Treasury yields would represent a structural shift in financial conditions that crypto hasn't priced in.
The Treasury's tripling of long-term buybacks to $6B—normally yield-supportive—failed to arrest the rally, signaling market conviction around inflation risk. This underscores that central banks' ability to anchor expectations is being tested. For Bitcoin, the implication is that macro regime changes (not sentiment or adoption stories) are now the dominant price driver in this volatility regime.