Bitcoin Price Today: US Money Supply Hits $23.3Tn – Why is BTC USD Falling Below $82,000?

Bitcoin price has surrendered Wednesday’s gains, falling towards $81,700 as renewed selling pressure threatens another test of $80,000. New analysis from 99Bitcoins identifies US monetary policy and dollar liquidity as the dominant forces behind BTC’s direction in 2026, with six key indicators revealing why the cryptocurrency has struggled to sustain its recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $82,000 on Thursday, October 22, reversing Wednesday’s recovery as renewed selling across risk assets exposed the fragility of the cryptocurrency market’s latest rally. BTC USD traded around $81,700 during the US morning session, having fallen from Wednesday’s high near $84,800. The decline briefly pushed Bitcoin towards $81,500, leaving the cryptocurrency down approximately 2.7% from the start of the UTC trading day.

Nothing has changed in the big picture. Bitcoin remains above support and has just retested it once again. Every move back towards support seems to create another wave of panic, while the structure remains the same. My longs I announced few days ago on X from $81,000… pic.twitter.com/YHe4fmYR4R

The reversal is particularly significant given Wednesday’s encouraging recovery. Bitcoin had climbed from approximately $83,000 towards $85,000, raising hopes that buyers were finally regaining control following the previous week’s volatility. Instead, selling returned before the market could challenge resistance around $86,000.

The decline comes against a difficult inflation backdrop. September’s US Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-on-year, accelerating from 3.4% in August. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% during the month, accounting for more than half the headline monthly increase.

Food prices have surged +34.5% since December 2019, now at their highest level on record.

Furthermore, motor vehicle maintenance and repair prices have soared +55.2%… pic.twitter.com/ZTldXbMgu5

Inflation has intensified scrutiny of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest-rate decision, although markets have recently reduced expectations of another rate hike.

Bitcoin’s inability to hold Wednesday’s gains suggests that diminishing rate-hike expectations alone are insufficient to sustain buying pressure. With BTC back below $82,000, the market is confronting an increasingly uncomfortable reality: monetary conditions remain too restrictive to deliver a convincing breakout.

Bitcoin’s October price structure has deteriorated following the rejection near $84,800. Wednesday’s advance briefly restored bullish momentum, but the failure to establish support above $84,000 has returned control to sellers.

The immediate technical challenge is reclaiming the $83,000 region, followed by Wednesday’s high around $84,800. Beyond that, the $86,000 to $87,000 resistance zone remains the principal obstacle to a stronger recovery.

A decisive daily close above that region would improve the technical outlook and reopen the route towards $88,000 and potentially $90,000. However, continued weakness below $82,000 increases the probability of another test of $80,000, the psychological support level that has repeatedly attracted buyers during October.

A confirmed breakdown beneath $80,000 could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction towards the $75,000 region.

The market therefore remains trapped between persistent demand around $80,000 and sellers emerging whenever BTC approaches $85,000. The question is what could finally break that deadlock, and for 99Bitcoins analysts, the answer increasingly lies in US monetary policy.

The Iran conflict, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating trade disputes, and renewed international tensions have produced repeated bouts of volatility across cryptocurrency markets this year.

Yet analysis of Bitcoin’s 2026 price action by 99Bitcoins suggests that monetary developments have played a more consistent role in determining whether those shocks develop into sustained trends.

Geopolitical announcements have frequently triggered abrupt movements in Bitcoin. However, the market’s ability to recover has depended heavily on interest-rate expectations, dollar liquidity, and the availability of capital.

October provides another revealing example: the inflation-driven selloff pushed Bitcoin towards $80,000 as investors priced in a greater probability of additional Federal Reserve tightening.

When those expectations eased, BTC recovered towards $85,000 on Wednesday. Yet the rally failed to hold, as Bitcoin surrendered most of its gains in a single session.

The failure highlights the difference between a market responding to improved monetary expectations and one receiving a sustained increase in liquidity.

There is an important transmission mechanism here: rising energy prices feed into inflation. Persistent inflation encourages tighter monetary policy. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and restrict the financing conditions that support speculative investment.

This also explains why Bitcoin has struggled to sustain upward momentum despite growing institutional participation and a recovery from its midyear lows. For Bitcoin, the geopolitical shock is often the opening trade. The monetary consequences determine whether investors have the capital and appetite to buy the recovery.

99Bitcoins therefore considers monetary conditions the most useful framework for assessing the next major price movement, with the strength of any recovery depending on whether liquidity continues to expand.

To track these developments, 99Bitcoins is introducing a rolling monetary policy dashboard covering six indicators with direct implications for Bitcoin’s liquidity environment.