Bitcoin will become ‘less volatile’ and larger than gold: ‘The Bitcoin Standard’ author
Saifedean Ammous argues that Bitcoin already functions as money when held as a store of value; expects it will become larger and less volatile than gold as it matures.
Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Ammous's thesis rests on a narrative of monetary maturation: as Bitcoin's market cap grows relative to annual trading volumes, price swings should theoretically compress. This assumes adoption follows an S-curve where volatility naturally dampens at scale—a model that holds for established commodities but hasn't been tested across a full macro cycle for Bitcoin. Gold's sub-10% annual volatility reflects centuries of stable industrial/jewelry demand and central bank reserves; Bitcoin would need comparable structural demand anchors to reach similar stability.
The 'store of value' framing sidesteps the medium-of-exchange question that has defined Bitcoin's decade-long identity crisis. Calling Bitcoin functional money while acknowledging its volatility inverts cause and effect—high price variance itself prevents merchant adoption and velocity, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. The claim that Bitcoin exceeds gold's market cap (~$14T) hinges on narrative adoption by institutions and sovereigns, not technical inevitability. This signals how Bitcoin discourse has shifted from libertarian payment rails to competing asset class positioning.