Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Back — and the Data Agrees
Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Back — and the Data Agrees The Bitcoin price's move above its 365-day average marks the end of bear market, says CryptoQuant. This post Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is B...
The Bitcoin price's move above its 365-day average marks the end of bear market, says CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin’s run this weekend would have observers believing that the bull market is back. But the data also backs it up.
A new report from data firm CryptoQuant shows that the leading cryptocurrency crossed above its 365-day moving average — a signal that the asset has finished being in a bear market.
Bitcoin’s price surged in August and had its best run in years, spurred by an announcement from the U.S. Treasury saying it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations. Its run cooled but then last week shot up again and was recently trading for $86,598 after trading as high as nearly $87,330 on Monday.
“This crossover is the definitive technical signal that has marked the start of Bitcoin’s bull markets in past cycles, and it is the first time price has reclaimed the 365-day moving average since March 2023,” the report read.
It added that the moving average is a “cycle-defining” line and confirmed the start of bull runs in previous years.
“Its track record across cycles is why this reclaim carries real weight rather than being a routine bounce,” the report added.
The report continued that long-term holders appear to have finished selling, making the way for new investors to enter the market.
Bitcoin notched a record of $126,080 in October of last year but then began to sink later that month after the biggest liquidation event in crypto history saw over $19 billion in bets closed.
In the first half of this year it continued its plunge after the Federal Reserve made it clear it was in no hurry to lower interest rates and investors increasingly threw money at artificial intelligence-related stocks to get returns.
But the so-called debasement trade — where investors throw money at an asset to hedge against a currency losing its value — is hot again. Bitcoin and precious metals like gold have done well when the dollar has weakened.
And the Federal Reserve last week raised interest rates to get sky-high inflation in the U.S. under control. Investors shrugged the central bank’s move off and bought up the asset.
Now, people seem more interested in buying an asset that can protect them from government debt and deficit. In August, total U.S. debt topped $40 trillion for the first time.
Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Bitcoin trading above its 365-day moving average is a technical milestone that carries weight in on-chain analysis frameworks, but the framing of 'bear market end' requires context. This metric is lagging by nature—it reflects historical price action, not forward momentum. The 365-day MA has signaled regime changes before, but its predictive power diminishes when price action becomes choppy near the threshold. CryptoQuant's interpretation assumes mean reversion dynamics that may not hold in non-correlated market environments.
The signal matters primarily as a psychological and institutional marker. Funds and traders use moving averages as technical anchors for position sizing and risk management. Crossing above the long-term MA can catalyze vol expansion and reduce friction for large inflows, but it does not confirm sustained demand or address macro headwinds like rate policy or regulatory uncertainty. Historical precedent shows similar crossovers have preceded both significant rallies and near-term pullbacks depending on concurrent market structure.