David Lawant: Bitcoin Entering New “Bullish Regime” According to Options Market
Bitcoin Magazine David Lawant: Bitcoin Entering New “Bullish Regime” According to Options Market Bitcoin open interest hits $50B. Anchorage Digital’s David Lawant breaks down rising spot volume and t...
Bitcoin open interest hits $50B. Anchorage Digital’s David Lawant breaks down rising spot volume and thin order books signaling an early market upturn.
Bitcoin futures open interest is back above $50 billion for the first time this year. Is that healthy leverage or a warning sign? David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital, says it’s a sign of vitality, and explains why rising spot volume and thinning order books point to the early stages of a Bitcoin market upturn.
Chapters:0:00 Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Tops $50B – Healthy or a Warning Sign?1:26 Reading Bitcoin’s Market Structure Beyond Open Interest3:23 Rising Spot Volume, Thinning Order Books, and the Anthropic IPO4:15 The Liquidity Absorption Ratio Explained6:52 How to Spot a Bitcoin Market Regime Change7:36 The $60B Bitcoin Options Market and the Volatility Curve8:57 Why Short-Dated Bitcoin Volatility Stayed Elevated in 202610:09 What Bitcoin Options Tell You That Price Can’t11:28 Lessons From Anchorage’s 37,000 Covered Call Backtests13:29 How ETFs and Treasury Companies Are Changing Price Discovery
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Open interest crossing $50B signals structural participation from institutional derivatives traders, but context matters: this milestone reflects both genuine hedging demand and leverage accumulation. The 'bullish regime' framing hinges on options skew and call/put ratios—metrics that can shift rapidly on spot price movement or macro events. Lawant's framework likely examines realized vs. implied volatility spreads and term structure, which are genuine leading indicators, but these are intermediate signals, not confirmation of directional conviction.
Rising spot volume paired with growing open interest can indicate two divergent scenarios: authentic institutional accumulation (positive) or leverage-fueled trading within an already-extended move (cautionary). The fact that options data is being highlighted suggests retail and smaller institutions are now pricing in multi-month upside—a crowded trade indicator. Historically, when options positioning becomes this visible in mainstream narrative, smart money has already repositioned.