Now is the time to accumulate bitcoin, Galaxy says
Galaxy argues improving price trends, resilient ETF demand and rising U.S. debt support bitcoin’s recovery towards its previous high.
Bitcoin’s BTC$84,459.46 rally has stalled in recent weeks, leaving prices listless around $80,000. In a market where sentiment shifts quickly, this has led some bears to warn of a renewed price crash.
But Galaxy remains confident in bitcoin’s long-term prospects, saying it’s time to accumulate.
“We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,” Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, said in a note titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC.”
Galaxy Digital is a U.S. financial and infrastructure firm founded in 2018 by billionaire Mike Novogratz. It is headquartered in New York City and trades on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY.
According to Thorn, the bear market likely ended in June under $58,000, and improving price-chart signals, reduced selling pressure, and mounting fiscal risks make the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization attractive to accumulate.
He added that bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase resembling periods that preceded previous advances.
Bitcoin traded around $80,000 at the time of the article, up 38% from June lows under $58,000. Still, prices are down approximately 35% from the record high of over $126,000. Returning to that high would require a gain of roughly 53%.
Thorn highlighted bitcoin’s bullish recovery above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it. Five consecutive weekly closes above that level have strengthened his conviction that the market had bottomed.
Positioning also supports the thesis, Thorn argued. Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME bitcoin futures had fallen 57% from the week of the record high, while several major trading firms substantially reduced ETF holdings. That’s a sign that fast money has left, leaving the market in much healthier shape.
“The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection,” Thorn said.
Other investors have been buying the dip. Galaxy said spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC following the June low, suggesting renewed directional demand as arbitrage activity declined.
The firm sees rising U.S. debt, persistent deficits, and rising interest costs strengthening bitcoin’s appeal as a fixed-supply asset.
Meanwhile, institutional enthusiasm for stablecoins and tokenization, alongside fading interest in bitcoin, resembles sentiment around previous market lows, according to Thorn.
Galaxy acknowledged risks from broader market declines, AI-related disruption and quantum computing. A weekly close below $76,540, followed by failure to recover within a month, would challenge its technical thesis.
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Galaxy's accumulation thesis rests on three structural supports: technical momentum, institutional ETF flows, and macro fiscal conditions. The U.S. debt argument is particularly significant—it signals a shift in how institutional players frame Bitcoin's value proposition, moving from pure scarcity narrative to explicit positioning as a hedge against currency debasement and fiscal stimulus. This macro framing has historically preceded sustained institutional inflows, though it also exposes Bitcoin to interest-rate policy shifts that could reverse the debt-spending dynamic.
ETF resilience mentioned here is material. Spot Bitcoin ETF approval in early 2024 created a structural bid that persists even during drawdowns, lowering the friction for traditional asset managers to allocate. However, 'improving price trends' is circular—momentum-based positioning can accelerate both rallies and reversals. Galaxy's public accumulation call also signals positioning by a major player; such statements often precede announcements of new investment products or capital deployment, warranting monitoring for follow-through vehicles.
The recovery-to-previous-high framing implies we're observing a consolidation zone rather than a new bull market phase. Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin typically needs fresh catalysts (regulatory approval, macroeconomic shock, corporate adoption waves) to break decisively above prior peaks. The current setup describes conditions *permissive* for accumulation, not conditions that guarantee appreciation.