The Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq Signal Has Flipped Bullish
▶Bitcoin Magazine The Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq Signal Has Flipped Bullish As tech drops, Bitcoin holds. Sean Hagan examines the BTC/Nasdaq ratio reclaiming its 200-day MA, historical 84% median gains, and...
As tech drops, Bitcoin holds. Sean Hagan examines the BTC/Nasdaq ratio reclaiming its 200-day MA, historical 84% median gains, and his $100K line in the sand.
Tech stocks are selling off, and Bitcoin is holding. Today’s Chart of the Day looks at Bitcoin priced in tech stocks, the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio, which reclaimed its 200-day moving average on September 18 after 235 straight sessions below it and hasn’t closed under it since. Sean Hagan walks through why Bitcoin was higher one year after reclaims like this five of six times with a median gain of roughly 84%, why this cycle’s 62% reset was the shallowest on record, and what the 2021 fake-out looked like by comparison. He also gives his invalidation level and his $100K line in the sand.
Chapters:0:00 Bitcoin Priced in Tech Stocks: Four Cycle Resets From 87% to 62%0:37 The Ratio Reclaims Its 200-Day After 235 Sessions Below1:05 Is Bitcoin Just a Leveraged Tech Bet? What the Critics Are Missing1:49 Beta Falls to 0.75 and the Leveraged Drawdown Already Happened2:32 How Much Confidence in a 5-of-6 Hit Rate? 15 Backtest Combinations3:03 Above the 100, 150 and 200-Day Averages With Puell Multiple Confirming3:52 The 2021 Fake-Out: Why Mid-Cycle Dips Aren’t Resets4:56 The Harder Macro Backdrop: Brent at $113 and the 10-Year Near 5%5:39 Invalidation at $76–77K and the $100K Line in the Sand6:39 Drawdowns Along the Way and Why the Reset Is Complete
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
The BTC/Nasdaq ratio breaking above its 200-day moving average signals a divergence in risk-on assets—Bitcoin rallying while growth tech retreats. This decoupling is substantively different from 2020-2021 dynamics, when Bitcoin and high-growth equities moved in lockstep on Fed liquidity. The historical 84% median gain following this specific technical setup suggests institutional money may be rotating from overextended Nasdaq names into Bitcoin as a macro hedge or uncorrelated alpha source.
The timing matters: tech valuations remain elevated despite recent pullbacks, and Bitcoin's outperformance despite (not because of) macro tailwinds indicates shifting conviction about its role in portfolios. If this ratio continues higher, it signals reduced correlation to equity risk—a structural change that would reframe Bitcoin's beta profile and likely attract algorithmic rebalancing from large allocators. Conversely, if the Nasdaq stabilizes and reverses higher, the ratio's predictive edge collapses quickly, making this a provisional but monitored regime shift rather than a confirmed trend.