Traders aren't panicking yet despite cooling crypto sentiment
Your day-ahead look for Sept. 28, 2026
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Bitcoin BTC$83,064.69, ether ETH$2,667.32 and other major cryptocurrencies have come under pressure since the uptrend hit a wall last Monday. The usual next question is whether this has traders scrambling to buy crash insurance.
That’s evident from skew, an options market metric that tracks the spread between what traders pay for downside puts and what they pay for upside calls. A sudden put bid would mean puts getting much more expensive than calls. That’s not the case so far. But yes, calls are no longer in demand as they were a week ago, a sign that bullish sentiment has cooled.
“The 1.98v week-over-week move on BTC 7d skew to -0.45v sits at the 92nd percentile of its 52-week range against a -4.41v median, so downside remains historically cheap even after calls have given up their premium,” it said in an explainer on X. (v stands for volatility, options are often priced in terms of volatility).
In plain English, puts are relatively pricier than calls, but the relatively richness is barely even noticeable compared to the typical reading of around -4.41 over the past year or so. In other words, puts usually cost a lot more than they do now.
The takeway, therefore, is that bitcoin traders are chasing puts they are not yet positioning for a crash or deep sell-off.
For ether, calls are still more expensive than puts, but the premium has narrowed from a week ago, suggesting that bullish sentiment has cooled.
“Put demand has jumped over the past few days. The question is whether that is a short-term hedge or the start of a regime shift,” it said on X.
“Implied vol is back near cycle lows while realized vol runs 12 points higher, and some Bitcoin options are now priced at 30 vol on a market moving at 42.” Essentially, bitcoin options are still cheap. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
Prices have pulled back to under $83,000, revisiting the high clocked in May. That level of $82,813 was formerly seen as potential resistance, a supply zone, when BTC began rallying early this month.
However, prices swiftly rose through the same level on Sept. 21, flipping it into support. Now, it is being tested again. If it holds, the next leg higher could unfold. If the support gives way, a deeper pullback may unfold.
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Muted panic despite weakening sentiment suggests the market has already priced in near-term headwinds. This disconnect—where negative sentiment hasn't triggered capitulation selling—typically indicates either complacency from exhausted retail participants or conviction among institutional holders that current valuations reflect downside risks. Historical precedent (2022, 2018) shows this phase precedes either stabilization or a sharper washout, depending on macro catalysts.
The absence of panic selling is itself a signal worth monitoring. When traders remain calm during sentiment deterioration, it often means conviction holders are accumulating or leverage has already been flushed. However, it can also mask liquidity fragmentation—retail exits while institutions selectively add. Watch for volume and volatility metrics; if calm persists without recovery attempts, it suggests markets are waiting for external validation (Fed policy, macro data) before committing directionally.