Bitcoin Price Unlikely To Be Bothered by Interest Rate Hike: Grayscale
Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin Price Unlikely To Be Bothered by Interest Rate Hike: Grayscale The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates on Wednesday — and may do so again this year — but bitcoin's price is...
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates on Wednesday — and may do so again this year — but bitcoin's price is unlikely to be hurt, Grayscale argued.
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday and it sent the bitcoin price — briefly — all over the place.
But then it settled and currently sits a modest 1% higher over a 24-hour period.
And according to asset manager Grayscale’s crypto research team, bitcoin is unlikely to be bothered by the Fed’s decision.
“We believe yesterday’s move was a mid-cycle adjustment, not a cyclical change,” wrote the firm’s head of research, Zach Pandl, in a Thursday note.
“And we doubt the one or two rate hikes expected for 2026 will lead to much change in capital allocation.”
Bitcoin has — in the past but not always — done well in a low interest rate environment. And when the Federal Reserve has in the past increased borrowing costs, the price of the leading digital asset has slid.
That’s because low interest rates means more liquidity for investors to take risks and buy assets like bitcoin.
Pandl added that when the Fed in 2022 started ramping up interest rates to contain inflation, it “probably weighed on the price of bitcoin” because it “meaningfully affected the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.”
But this time feels more like 1997, argued Pandl, when the Federal Reserve did a one off hike and the Nasdaq kept moving higher.
Bitcoin’s price recently stood at close to $76,581, up 18% over the past 30 days. The coin in August benefited from news that the U.S. Treasury would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations.
The U.S. is currently in the grips of an affordability crisis and inflation is hurting households as oil prices surge.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank was focused on bringing down inflation.
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long,” he said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he wants interest rates to be lower. Writing on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday, he said: “Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR.”
Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Grayscale's position reflects a substantive shift in how institutional investors are modeling bitcoin's macro sensitivity. Historically, rate hikes compressed risk assets broadly—including bitcoin—by raising discount rates and opportunity costs of non-yielding assets. The claim that bitcoin is 'unlikely to be bothered' signals either: (1) conviction that bitcoin's narrative has decoupled from rate expectations, or (2) belief that near-term rate paths are already priced into spot/futures markets.
This framing matters because Grayscale manages ~$30B in digital assets and commands outsized influence on institutional positioning. If large asset managers adopt this view, it could reduce mechanical selling pressure during tightening cycles, historically a volatility driver. However, the statement should be contextualized against empirical correlation data from prior hiking cycles (2015-2018, 2022-2023), where bitcoin initially tracked risk-off flows despite narrative pushback from on-chain analysts.