Crypto platform Gemini’s stock is down 80% from its IPO. That’s reviving takeover speculation

The crypto platform’s market value has fallen to about $753 million, putting fresh attention on the licenses, custody infrastructure and customer relationships a buyer could inherit.

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), a crypto platform, has seen its price roughly 80% since its public debut, reviving questions about whether the platform founded by the billionaire Winklevoss twins could eventually become an acquisition target.

Lorenzo Valente, director of digital assets research at ARK Invest, argued in a post on X last month that Hyperliquid, the offshore perpetual-trading platform, should acquire Gemini and use it as a regulated U.S. gateway for perpetual futures and prediction markets, with the Winklevoss twins’ concentrated voting control potentially simplifying the deal.

While there is no indication that Hyperliquid is actively pursuing a deal to buy Gemini, Valente's proposal raises a broader question: What is Gemini's value proposition to a potential buyer if its regulatory infrastructure is worth more than its shrinking spot-exchange business?

Currently, the stock's market cap is $753 million, down from about $4 billion at its peak. Gemini’s second-quarter exchange revenue fell 38% from a year earlier to $12.5 million, while spot trading volume dropped 66% to $3.8 billion, and assets on the platform declined to $8.4 billion from $18.2 billion.

While its exchange business is shrinking, its core exchange technology may also offer limited differentiation from rivals, a venture capital investor told CoinDesk.

However, Gemini (through its subsidiaries) still holds important regulatory licenses and approvals that would be costly and time-consuming for competitors to replicate organically, the investor said. Potential buyers would likely weigh the cost of buying these entities versus the time and legal fees associated with obtaining these approvals, the person added.

That would fit a broader pattern in crypto M&A, where buyers are increasingly paying for regulatory infrastructure, distribution and market access rather than simply acquiring trading volume. For example, digital-asset services firm Keyrock bought BlockFills’ trading assets in July to add regulatory licenses, derivatives expertise and institutional clients, while tokenization firm Ondo has been exploring a deal worth up to $500 million. LMAX and B2C2 have also explored strategic transactions as crypto companies look to expand through acquisitions rather than build every license and product internally.

CoinDesk reported in April that prospective buyers were considering buying Gemini’s shuttered European and U.K. operations primarily for their regulatory licenses, rather than pursuing a full takeover. A deal has yet to materialize amid differing views on valuation, the investor noted, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the matter is private.

The Winklevoss twins effectively hold 94.5% of Gemini’s voting power, meaning any deal negotiations would largely run through two people, making the potential process simpler.

But it also presents an obstacle. With their concentration of voting power, the brothers would effectively have to approve any sale, making a hostile takeover or shareholder-driven effort to force a transaction virtually impossible.

While the decline reflects concerns about shrinking trading volumes and continued losses, the reduced valuation could offer a potential acquirer a relatively inexpensive route to Gemini’s regulatory licenses, customer base and custody infrastructure.

The question is, would potential buyers be able to convince the brothers to sell?

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