Nobel Peace Prize Polymarket Odds as Sudan Emergency Rooms Lead at 13.4%

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms had the highest Yes price on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Polymarket odds at 13.4% in a snapshot taken today (October 5).

That made the network the leading-priced outcome among listed contracts ahead of the October 9 announcement, not a likely winner by market pricing, and not an official Nobel Committee signal.

The corresponding No price was 86.6%. Polymarket’s market summary described the ERR price as fluctuating roughly between 13% and 17% ahead of the announcement; those figures reflect different points in time, while 13.4% is the price in the timestamped snapshot.

Save the Children is currently second, priced at 8%, while President Trump sits at just 1%, a wild-horse bet with over $5.7M in volume, making up a fair chunk of the total $26.7M volume.

A Polymarket price represents an implied probability based on trading in that contract, not a poll or a committee forecast. At 13.4%, the Yes price indicates how the market valued that outcome at the time of the snapshot; it does not guarantee that the result will occur.

The ERR contract was open, with $67,611 in market volume and a 24-hour change of -1.8 percentage points. Across the event, Polymarket recorded $26,089,225 in total volume and $1,602,120 in liquidity, but those event-wide figures do not mean the same amount was available to trade on the ERR outcome.

Under the market rules, settlement follows the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s first official announcement. The event was open when the data was retrieved and had an April 1, 2027 end date. As with other Polymarket political-outcome prices, the displayed probability is a market snapshot shaped by trading conditions, not an official forecast.

I am officially nominating Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) for the Nobel Peace Prize.

The other listed Yes prices underscore how widely the market’s pricing was spread. Save the Children stood at 7.9%, Mykola Kuleba at 6.5%, the International Court of Justice at 6.3%, the Committee to Protect Journalists at 5.6%, and Yulia Navalnaya at 4.7%.

That gap put Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at the top of the listed outcomes, but the 13.4% Yes price still left the outcome well below an even chance.

The field’s spread resembles other Polymarket markets with competing political outcomes: the highest-priced contract can lead without commanding a majority of the market’s implied probability.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee determines and announces the prize winner. The Polymarket snapshot provides no official shortlist, confirmation of a nomination, or endorsement from the committee, so the ERRs’ position on the market should not be read as evidence of inside information or formal recognition.

The market is useful as a view of how traders price a set of possible outcomes, not as a substitute for information from the institution making the decision. Other prediction-market odds for safety talks offer a separate example of why contract prices should be distinguished from confirmed real-world outcomes.

The October 5 figure is a timestamped reading; prices can change as orders and trading activity shift. It is neither a guarantee, a poll result, nor an official Nobel signal. This is informational market analysis, not financial or betting advice.

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Alex is a seasoned cryptocurrency trader and market analyst with over seven years of active experience in the digital asset space. Since entering the markets in 2017, Alex has specialized in identifying emerging "meta" trends and high-volatility narratives. Notably, Alex... Read More