StoneX Global Macro Director: French Bond Market Contagion & BTC Market Outlook | Vincent Deluard
Bitcoin Magazine StoneX Global Macro Director: French Bond Market Contagion & BTC Market Outlook | Vincent Deluard Treasury yields and oil surge as StoneX's Vincent Deluard warns equities are nex...
Treasury yields and oil surge as StoneX's Vincent Deluard warns equities are next. He turns bearish on stocks post-November while staying bullish on Bitcoin.
Treasury yields, oil prices and the yen carry trade are all reaching a breaking point, and Vincent Deluard warns that equities could be next. The StoneX strategist argues that markets will hold up through the midterms and the Anthropic IPO, but that AI capex can’t keep doubling forever. After November, he plans to turn bearish on stocks while staying bullish on Bitcoin and gold.
Chapters:00:00 Why Rising Treasury Yields Point to Long-Term Dollar Debasement02:01 Can AI and Robotics Grow the US Out of Its Debt Problem?03:48 Bitcoin vs. Gold: Which Is the Better Debasement Hedge?05:36 What Daily Tax Collection Data Reveals About the US Economy09:34 Inside France’s Bond Market Crisis and Its Debt Problem12:21 Eurozone Contagion Risk and the Case for Shorting the Euro15:02 Yen, Oil and Treasury Yields: Three Signals at a Breaking Point17:15 Top-Heavy Stocks, the Anthropic IPO and a Post-Midterm Sell-Off19:52 The Return of QE and Why It’s Bullish for Bitcoin and Gold21:27 Bitcoin Price Outlook for the Next Two Years
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Asanat Analysis — Why it matters
Vincent Deluard's macro warning signals a potential liquidity squeeze originating in French government bonds—a systemically important market. French spreads widening relative to German Bunds historically precedes broader eurozone stress, which can cascade into risk-off sentiment across all asset classes including crypto. The mention of treasury yields and oil surging alongside bond contagion concerns suggests stagflationary pressures, a regime where traditional haven flows (e.g., to USD) compete with alternative store-of-value narratives.
Bitcoin's behavior in macro stress scenarios depends critically on whether the trigger is deflationary (deleveraging, margin calls) or inflationary (currency debasement). A French bond crisis likely tilts toward the former—forced selling of risk assets to meet collateral requirements—which historically pressures Bitcoin in the short term. However, Deluard's focus on equity vulnerability as the 'next' leg suggests institutional positioning may not yet price in equity downside, meaning macro volatility could create tactical entry windows if systemic contagion remains contained.